#157 - Downturns Are Underrated

Two years ago, I went to New York to spend time with my parents, take care of some stuff around the house I grew up in, and check in on friends I've been tight with since elementary school.

Over the weekend, we even took a road trip to Washington DC, to watch our beloved New York Mets. ⚾️ On the way home, my buddy dropped me in New York City so I could take a train to the suburbs on Long Island, where my parents live.
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Now, I've taken that train from New York City to my hometown at least 100 times. But somehow, this time -- I got on the wrong one. Dashing through the station as I wolfed down a slice of pizza, I hopped on a train headed nowhere close to home. Even worse, I only figured it out after crossing deep into the wrong part of Long Island. 🤦🏻‍♂️

This is for everyone

I originally framed today's issue as an ode and an "I see you" to people out of work, given the job pain they're facing. Next week, I'm planning a sort of love letter to new grads who are battling their own version of the same pain.

But this morning, winded and sweaty after a jog in the Singapore swelter -- and up against my deadline -- I decided to reorient the whole thing, and make today more inclusive.

Because whether unemployed, new grad, gainfully employed, or entrepreneur -- it doesn’t matter. The message this week is the same and it applies to all of us.

My pitch? Slow times are the best times to invest in yourself, and build career capital. Fewer distractions. More space. Cheaper time.

My focus today? Two types of career capital: skills and awareness. A few issues ago, we looked at a third: networking. All three are assets that not only compound -- but also remix -- in powerful ways.

My ask? Bake some of each into your week or month. Start small. Try it for three months. But kick off that compounding.

My reminder? Nobody's going to do this for you. That part’s on you. You are -- and always will be -- your career's best advocate. 🙌

Once, after he was laid off during the dot-com bust in San Francisco, my best friend dropped a line that's stayed with me ever since:

I mean, it's dark, but it's pretty good, right? It's counterintuitive, it's got alliteration. It's hyperbolic, it's ironic. And to an extent -- it's true.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that losing your job is ever a good thing.

Not the level of anxiety and uncertainty it brings, not the loss of identity and control it can entail. We find meaning, purpose and structure in our work, and when that goes away, we feel untethered. The blows to our esteem -- and our income -- are real and painful. 😔

But what my friend meant was that there can be silver linings to being without work. That downturns can be many hard, painful things -- but also great chances to build career capital.

This has always been the case. But it's especially true now, in this moment.

The most valuable career capital -- time -- is on sale right now

During economic downturns (like the one we're in 🙋🏻‍♂️) something counterintuitive but important to understand happens to our relationship with time.

If you're between roles, the shift is obvious: you have more of it. Time to reconnect with people you love. To handle all the life "stuff" that piles up when you're heads-down in a job. Heck, to read a book, or binge a show on Netflix without feeling guilty for once. ❤️ But also time to build your network, dive into learning, and reflect on where you want to go.

Even if you're in a job though, downturns still create opportunity. Companies slow down their hiring. They promote less, and give smaller pay rises. Externally, there are fewer roles to apply to, and leaving for a new company feels riskier.

In effect, your time becomes "cheaper" because there is less demand for it. Which makes this a great moment to explore and pick up new career capital. In practice, that means raising your hand for internal roles which are now in greater supply. Taking a course, or maxing out your learning stipend. Saying yes to a stretch project. Building your network within the company.

Unemployed, or employed, the smart move is the same: to use your temporarily discounted time to build the career capital we know compounds -- capital like skills, network, and awareness. That way, you can deploy that capital during the inevitable upswing, when your time commands a premium again and the market rewards your investment. 🧐

The silver lining: new skills -- and a window of AI opportunity

I run a one-person company, so I spend the bulk of my time finding clients and delivering work to earn revenue. Then I write this newsletter, which also keeps me busy. But while I'm not swimming in free time, I do have the luxury of a flexible schedule. And if I’m honest, I'm behind where I want to be in learning cutting edge AI tools.

Still, I try. Because the more I explore, the more convinced I become that this window we're in -- right now -- matters. The tools are improving so fast. The leverage they offer is compounding. It’s clear that being savvy with them is crucial.

The good news? If you're between jobs -- or just in a slower market -- you have more headroom to learn. More excuse to experiment, build fluency -- and squeeze through a shrinking window of opportunity.

The gold lining: career clarity

Remember the train story I opened with?

Here's how it ended: once I figured out I was on the wrong train, I didn't shrug my shoulders and hurtle ahead in the wrong direction. Instead, some time after midnight, I hopped off at the next stop. Unable to find an Uber, and underdressed for a chilly New York spring, I called my dad for a ride, and he came over to bail me out.

Embarrassing? ✅ High school again? ✅ ✅

But in the physical world, it's simple enough: we realize we're headed the wrong way, we do something about it.

Not so in the career realm. We keep riding, even when we know we're not happy. Even if we know that no matter how much effort we make, the wrong train is just going to take us some place we don't want to be.

To be fair though: how many of us have the time to ask if we're on the right track? Let alone what it would take to switch. The grind of work doesn't allow space for that. And every promotion, raise and year invested just make it harder to ask: "Is this actually what I want to be doing?"

Here, again, downturns offer us a bit of relief. They slow things down just enough for us to ask if we’re headed in the right direction. They give us some space -- and the bargain-priced time -- to step off, look around, and at least question if there's a better line.

The harsh reality is that in a world changing as fast as ours, being on the wrong career train is more costly -- because that train moves faster.

But the good news is, there are now more trains and more stops than ever, making it easier, less risky, more accepted -- even wiser -- to explore a better route.

Thanks for reading -- and have a great end of the week! 🙏

Aki